What will happen to the dollar in February
What will the dollar exchange rate be at the beginning of 2019? How will the cost of a barrel affect the dynamics of the dollar/ruble pair? What will prevent the ruble from strengthening against the USD at the beginning of 2019? You will learn about all this in the dollar exchange rate forecast for the beginning of 2019.
Analysis of US economic indicators and forecast for 2019
The next meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place from December 18 to 19, 2018, during which the fate of the key rate will be determined. It is highly likely that a decision will be made to increase it from 2.25% to 2.5%. The main reason once again may be the acceleration of economic growth in 2018. At the end of the 3rd quarter of 2018, US GDP grew by 3.5% (y/y), consumer spending increased by 4%.
According to the 2019 forecast from the American Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing sector is expected to increase revenue by 5.7%, increase capital expenditures by 6% at current capacity utilization of 85.2% and employment growth of 2.4% . In the non-manufacturing sector, ISM forecasts revenue increases of 3.7%, capital expenditures of 3.4%, with capacity utilization currently at 88.4%, and employment growth of 2%.
Accordingly, it can be assumed that the positive dynamics of economic indicators in 2018 will contribute to the strengthening of the US dollar against the currencies of developing countries at the beginning of 2019.
Analysis of the economic situation in Russia since the beginning of 2018
Today, December 14, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will make a decision on the key rate. According to Elvira Nabiullina, both maintaining the rate at 7.5% and increasing it are being considered. The Central Bank's attention is mainly focused on ensuring price stability, or in other words, inflation targeting, and not on maintaining the national currency. Expected inflation by the end of the year is 3.9-4%. According to forecasts from the Ministry of Economic Development, inflation may rise to 5.5% at the beginning of 2019.
The pressure on the ruble is, of course, exerted by sanctions and the US dollar, which is used by Russia in most international payments. It is quite possible that the Central Bank will be forced to raise the rate following the Fed, but the Russian currency will not receive significant support.
It is worth paying attention to the oil sector. Here the Russian Federation feels “like a fish in water”, being one of the largest suppliers of oil and gas to the world market. Today, daily production of black gold exceeds 11 million barrels. As for gas, political obstacles in the form of a resolution against Nord Stream 2 from the US Congress once again confirm the United States’ concerns about Gazprom’s already significant presence in the EU. And since the ruble is primarily a commodity currency, moderately positive dynamics of oil prices can support the exchange rate of the Russian currency.
Technical analytics of dollar versus ruble
At the beginning of January 2018, the cost of USD was 57.42 rubles. (opening price January 3, 2018). By mid-December 2018, the dollar rose in price against the ruble by more than 15%, and at the time of writing the forecast, the USDRUB pair is trading around the 66.2 ruble mark. A significant increase in the value of the dollar was observed during the periods of introduction of anti-Russian sanctions in April, August and September 2018. The weekly chart shows that throughout the year the dollar/ruble pair has been trading within an ascending channel, which dates back to February 2018. Currently, the dynamics in the USDRUB pair are developing in a sideways direction. In our opinion, until the end of the year the pair will continue to fluctuate in the range of 66-67.5 rubles per US dollar.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for the beginning of 2019
At the beginning of 2019, we predict a further weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the return of the USDRUB pair to the ascending channel. In addition to the already present geopolitical and economic drivers of growth in the value of the US dollar, another one may be added. If today, December 14, the Central Bank decides to resume purchasing foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance from January 15, 2019, the ruble will continue to weaken against the dollar. Our forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate at the beginning of 2019 is 67-69 rubles.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for the beginning of 2019 Anna Bodrova Alpari
The latest forecast for the US dollar to ruble exchange rate for 2018 - a table with currency forecasts by month. Expert opinion on the prospects for the USD/RUB pair exchange rate in Russia.
Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast. Will there be growth?
Here's how he assesses the dollar's prospects for the fall and winter of 2018 Kira Yukhtenko, chief editor of InvestFuture and stock columnist:
Until we see the final version of US sanctions against Russia, it will not be easy for the dollar to firmly gain a foothold below 65 rubles. There is too much uncertainty for investors. We do not know whether the sanctions will affect Russian state-owned banks and whether a ban will be introduced on the ownership of Russian government bonds.
In my opinion, the following scenario is likely: in November the ruble will face increased volatility. After the elections to the US Congress on November 6 and the meeting between Trump and Putin on November 11, the American side will return to discussing sanctions. During this period, the dollar can rise above 70 and even above 75 rubles.
In fact, sanctions may not be as harsh as the market fears. And if the price of Brent oil remains at least above $70 per barrel until the end of the year, the ruble will have a chance to strengthen in December.
However, do not let your guard down: economists are warning of a new global crisis already in 2019-2020. If the gloomy forecasts come true, the currencies of all developing countries, including the ruble, will suffer
What will happen to the dollar/ruble exchange rate in 2018?
Dollar/ruble chart (Weekly)
No one can accurately predict the dollar exchange rate - too many factors simultaneously participate in its formation. But, taking into account the high foreign policy risks and structural problems in the Russian economy, experts agree: the ruble exchange rate may continue to decline in the fall and winter of 2018.
At the end of 2018, the dollar to ruble exchange rate may rise to 73-75 rubles. If you want to buy a currency for long-term savings, listen to the advice of economists: any depreciation can be used for purchases
Risk factors for the ruble
- The Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to raise interest rates, which puts long-term pressure on the currencies of all developing countries
- Waiting for the final package of anti-Russian sanctions from the United States in November 2018. Additional sanctions from the EU and UK are also possible.
- Possible decline in oil prices - the United States insists that Russia and Saudi Arabia “bring down” the price by increasing production
- Trade wars around the world - possible slowdown in growth rates of all major economies in the world
Factors supporting the ruble
- The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate in September 2018, and also suspended currency purchases for the Ministry of Finance as part of the budget until the end of the year. This decision allowed the exchange rate to stabilize in September.
- Until the fall, the price of oil continued to rise thanks to the OPEC agreement, as a deficit formed in the market.
Economists believe that the positive factors listed above will limit the potential for the ruble to weaken in the coming months. Without them, the Russian currency would be in danger of falling more rapidly.
Dollar forecast for 2018 by month. Table
Based on the forecasts of 11 stock analysts, we compiled average forecasts for the USD/RUB pair by month. The data in the table is given at the end of the month.
| Month | Average forecast at the end of the month, rub. |
| October 2018 | 67,98 |
| November 2018 | 70,39 |
| December 2018 | 68,25 |
Forecasts for the end of 2018 by month
Dollar forecast for October 2018
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for October 2018 is 67.98 rubles. October may turn out to be a difficult month for the ruble: we are waiting for details of US sanctions against Russia and fighting panic within the country.
Dollar forecast for November 2018
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for November 2018 is 70.39 rubles. On November 6, elections to the US Congress will take place, and after this date, Republicans and Democrats can resume discussion of anti-Russian sanctions.
Dollar forecast for December 2018
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for December 2018 is 68.25 rubles. The market is focusing on the last Fed meeting of the year, which will clarify the central bank’s plans for 2019.
The beginning of February 2018 was a period of noticeable instability in the exchange rate of the American dollar to the Russian ruble. The ruble quite actively and confidently strengthened against the dollar in December 2017 - January 2018. If in mid-November last year the dollar exchange rate in Russia exceeded 60 rubles, then at the peak of the depreciation - on January 27 - the dollar was given less than 56 rubles, namely 55 rubles 83 kopecks. These fluctuations are largely due to the fact that the dollar itself has become a less stable currency than it was before. When this is superimposed with similar instability inherent in the Russian ruble, the result turns out to be less predictable. What forecast for the dollar exchange rate do Russian experts give for February 2018, what will primarily determine the value of the American currency in Russia in the coming weeks.
What happens to the US dollar in early February
At the end of January, during the economic forum in Davos, a slight drop in the dollar against the main currencies of the world was provoked by none other than the head of the American Ministry of Finance, Steven Mnuchin. An American official told reporters at the time that the US economy as a whole would benefit from a slightly weaker dollar, which would have a positive impact on the benefits of foreign trade.
Observers were surprised by this statement - it is not appropriate for officials of the rank of head of the US Treasury to speak so openly about preferences for the national currency exchange rate. Investors began to get rid of the dollar in anticipation of the same decline in its value that, in their opinion, was announced by Mnuchin. The rate went down.
A few hours later, President Trump intervened in the situation and, in his own manner, supported the dollar, saying that there was no stronger currency in the world than the dollar, and that he, the president, believed in the power of the dollar.
The American currency, due to these verbal interventions by the US President, slowed down the decline, but not so noticeably. The announcements by the US Federal Reserve regarding the increase in the key rate in 2018 did not help either. The increase was expected on January 31, but the regulator postponed this measure until later, saying only that the rate would be increased three times during the year.
Surprisingly, the dollar did not strengthen even when US Treasury yields increased. Usually such news is a sure sign of an imminent increase in the exchange rate of the US national currency, but not this time. As experts say, indirectly the lack of reaction of the dollar to increased liquidity of Treasuries suggests that large investors, including the Central Bank of China, have begun to diversify their portfolios.
What is happening with the Russian ruble at the beginning of February 2018
The strengthening of the ruble at the end of January was largely due to the relative problems of the US dollar described above. However, in the first full week of February, the Russian ruble faced its own problems.
The main one of these problems is the decline in the cost of oil, on which the ruble still depends quite heavily.
As recently as February 2, a barrel of Brent cost almost $70—$69.82 per “barrel.” On February 8, the price per barrel was already $65.20. Accordingly, the dollar exchange rate in Russia has increased since the beginning of February - from 56.18 rubles to 57.67 rubles (the official exchange rate as of February 9).
The reason for the decline in the cost of a barrel is data from the United States, where oil reserves are rising for the second week in a row, and production levels are hitting new records.
The decision of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which will consider the issue of the key rate in Russia on February 9, will play an important role for the ruble exchange rate. In December, the rate was reduced to 7.75%, and a further reduction is expected by 0.25% or even 0.5%.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for February 2018 in Russia: what experts say
Foreign exchange market experts quite rarely name specific figures, realizing that this is unlikely to have a favorable impact on their authority. The currency exchange is a very spontaneous phenomenon; exchange rates depend on many factors, which are almost impossible to predict. The same example with unexpected statements by US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, which we talked about above, is a vivid example of this.
As a rule, analysts only talk about the general direction of the exchange rate in the event of certain events.
However, there are entire analytical agencies that are engaged in making specific forecasts. For example, Moscow APECON gives the following version of the forecast for the US dollar exchange rate in Russia for the rest of February:
At the moment, APECON experts predict that by the end of February 2018 the dollar will rise in price to almost 60 rubles. Of course, this or any other forecast should be treated with a certain degree of skepticism - anything can change within a month.
The beginning of February 2018 was a time of serious instability of the dollar against the ruble. The Russian currency grew quite confidently against the dollar at the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018. If in November 2017 the dollar exceeded 60 rubles, then on January 27 it cost only 55.83 rubles. In many ways, such changes are associated with the instability of the “American”. When the instability of the ruble itself is added to this, the result turns out to be completely unpredictable. Forecast of the dollar exchange rate for February 2018 from Russian experts, on which, first of all, the price of the dollar in Russia in February depends.
What happens to the US dollar in early February
In January, at the economic forum in Davos, the negative growth of the dollar was provoked by the head of the US Treasury Department, Steven Mnuchin. Mnuchin said the US could benefit from a slightly weaker dollar, which would have a positive impact on export gains.
Observers were amazed by this phrase - officials of such high rank rarely speak about the exchange rate of the national currency in this way. Investors began to sell dollars, expecting the same decline that Mnuchin spoke about. As a result, the dollar began to decline.
A few hours later, US President Donald Trump joined the situation, supporting the dollar with a statement that there was no currency stronger than it, and that Trump believed in the strength of his currency.
Following these words of the US President, the dollar, if it slowed down its decline, did not do so noticeably. The US Federal Reserve's announcements regarding an increase in the key rate in 2018 also did not help. It was planned for January 31, but the American regulator postponed it, stating only that in 2018 the rate would be increased 3 times.
Oddly enough, the dollar did not rise even after the increase in US Treasury yields. Typically, such news indicates an upcoming rise in the dollar, but not this time. According to analysts, the lack of reaction of the dollar to the increase in Treasury liquidity indirectly shows that the largest investors, for example, the Central Bank of China, have begun to diversify their own portfolios.
What is happening with the ruble at the beginning of February 2018
The growth of the ruble at the end of January is associated with some of the problems described in the dollar. But in the first full week of February, problems began with the ruble itself.
The main reason is the fall in oil prices, on which the ruble seriously depends.
On February 2, Brent oil cost $69.82. February 8 - already $65.20. Along with it, the dollar exchange rate in Russia also increased - from 56.18 rubles to 57.67 rubles.
The reason for the negative growth in oil is information from the United States, where oil reserves have been increasing for the second week, and production has broken all records.
The decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which is considering the value of the key rate in Russia on February 9, will also play an important role for the ruble. In December it amounted to 7.75%, a further decrease is planned - by 0.25% or 0.5%.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for February 2018 in Russia: what experts say
Experts rarely publish specific figures. The currency exchange is a very spontaneous phenomenon; rates depend on a variety of factors, and it is almost impossible to predict them. The example of Mnuchin’s statements is clear evidence.
As a rule, experts talk only about general trends in exchange rates under certain circumstances.
One way or another, there are entire analytical agencies involved in making specific forecasts. For example, the Russian APECON posted the following forecast for the dollar exchange rate in Russia for February:
Today, APECON believes that by the end of February 2018, the dollar will cost almost 60 rubles. Naturally, this or any other forecast should be treated with a certain degree of skepticism - anything can change in a month.
Dollar-ruble pairs have been attracting the attention of analysts and traders from all over the world for several years now. Due to the events that have occurred in the last 2 years, the value of the dollar against the ruble has begun to rise significantly.
Such actions fundamentally changed many international trade transactions. The commodity market, which mainly provided the domestic currency with support, has begun to significantly reduce turnover over the past 15 years. Due to political tensions, sanctions have emerged that force, through an economic embargo and notes of protest, to force the Russian political system to change course.
However, the domestic government is in no hurry to agree with the opinion of its Western colleagues and continues to promote its policy towards a number of foreign countries. This leads to the fact that one can observe how the political sphere has actively affected the price segment of the market in recent years, as well as the value of the dollar-ruble currency pair.
How the dollar exchange rate has changed over the past 5 years
Just five years ago, Russia had serious economic contracts with many European and Asian countries. This situation provided an excellent reason for the growth of the national currency. With the development of the raw materials industry and the supply of natural products to other countries, a serious and positively developing investment climate has been created.
So in 2012, a dollar-ruble pair cost around 31 rubles. Such a low cost by international standards had a great impact not only on international relations, but also on the social sphere within the country. All imported goods did not have much value, and wages and other various benefits began to grow steadily. This generated even greater demand for the currency and a natural increase in its liquidity.
Many foreign companies began to actively invest in the ruble, which generated even greater demand for it. This situation continued until mid-2014. In conditions of actively developing infrastructure, the ruble has significantly strengthened its position and made it possible to create a favorable economic background for development.
However, from the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2015 due to international proceedings and the first political conflicts. Response measures were developed that were not only political, but also economic in nature. As a result, for this period of time the cost of the currency pair was 60-62 rubles per 1 dollar. That is, in just a few months, the American currency has doubled in price.
The record price was in 2015, which at auction amounted to 83 rubles. In 2016-17, there was slight progress in relations and the emergence of new contracts, which influenced the reduction in cost. So today the average price of a pair is 49-52 rubles.
Are there prerequisites for growth?
Analysts do not give much positive forecast. This is due to the sanctions introduced at the beginning of 2018, which will affect some large domestic enterprises and corporations. As a result, this may lead to an increase in the rate and a decrease in the revenue side of both domestic production and the social sector.
What affects the ruble to dollar exchange rate?
Currency pairs today are influenced by various not only economic factors, but also political ones. The liquidity of a monetary unit is a significant indicator that redefines its value. If the demand for a country's currency is small, then the ratio to the value of the pair will be low.
Also, with the development in a negative direction of political relations with a number of countries, it became possible to determine that international economic relations in the raw materials and production sectors will be insignificant, and this also affects the value of the domestic ruble.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for February 2018
Due to the sanctions imposed by European and American countries at the beginning of 2018, analysts do not give clear and positive forecasts. The new measures being introduced will seriously affect many domestic companies and their foreign branches. As a result, such actions will lead to a decrease in the dynamics of the ruble movement and an outflow of even greater capital abroad. This will set the price for February 2018 at 68-75 rubles per 1 US dollar. Further ascent is planned. Starting from the 3rd quarter, the dollar will begin to decline against the ruble.
Which currency is better to invest in?
Most investors and traders do not approve of the aggressive movement of unstable pairs due to political infighting. As a result, it will not be easy to predict their movement or give an accurate forecast. Since the price will be affected by every negative or positive news.
As a result, there is an increase in investments in currencies that are calmer and independent of political international arenas and imposed sanctions and retaliatory measures. Such currencies include British pounds and Swiss crowns.
