Global warming map. Map of the earth's surface after the melting of all ice. Australia and New Zealand
The problem of climate change has become one of the urgent problems of modern climatology. Groups of scientists around the world are trying to predict the future of the planet with the help of physical and mathematical models. It is worth noting that there is no consensus on the scenario of climate fluctuations. It has now been established that a global increase in temperature is taking place on Earth, observations confirm the active melting of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. Most scientists agree that one of the main culprits of modern global warming is humanity, or rather its activities, due to which carbon dioxide and methane enter the atmosphere. Increasing its concentration leads to the so-called "greenhouse effect". However, there are groups of scientists who deny such a strong anthropogenic influence and put forward an opinion about the natural nature of climate fluctuations. In the distant past, the same processes were noted more than once, when the epoch of glaciation was followed by an epoch of relatively warm climate. The reasons for such variations are considered to be fluctuations in the tilt of the earth's axis, fluctuations in the Earth's orbit, powerful volcanic eruptions and changes in insolation. What will global warming lead to now and how will it affect humanity?
The editors of the National Geographic magazine decided to check what will happen to the Earth if, under the influence of high temperatures, all the ice that is on the planet today melts?
All sorts of options were calculated and an interactive map was created, on which the scenario for the development of events was recreated for each of the continents. 
Some development options:
1. Local changes in climatic and weather conditions. Many scientists predict a further increase in such cataclysms as floods, fires, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes. In addition, it is assumed that in some regions of the Earth there will come a local cooling.
2. Transformation of circulation in the world ocean. The melting of the glaciers will cause the sea level to rise. According to some data, a decrease in water salinity will also cause a change in water circulation in the Moscow Region. One of the widely discussed issues remains in this regard over the course of the Gulf Stream. Scientists suggest that the current will weaken significantly and stop heating Northern Europe.
3. Changes in flora and fauna, extinction of certain species of animals and plants. Every year, the areas of Arctic ice are decreasing, this is especially reflected in the continental ice. As you know, these areas are the habitat of polar bears. The inability to hunt and get their own food will lead to the gradual extinction of this species.
4. Change in the quality of human life. All of the above aspects cannot but affect civilization. Thus, changes will be felt in many sectors, but primarily in such an area of the economy as agriculture, where the climate factor is one of the most influential.
Antarctica is the least explored continent located in the south of the world. Most of its surface has an ice cover, up to 4.8 km thick. The Antarctic ice sheet contains 90% (!) of all the ice on our planet. It is so heavy that under it the mainland sank almost 500 m. Today, the world is seeing the first signs of global warming in Antarctica: large glaciers are collapsing, new lakes are appearing, and the soil is losing its ice cover. Let's simulate the situation, what will happen if Antarctica loses its ice.
How will Antarctica itself change?
Today the area of Antarctica is 14,107,000 km². If the glaciers melt, these numbers will drop by a third. The mainland will become almost unrecognizable. Under the ice are numerous mountain ranges and massifs. The western part will definitely become an archipelago, and the eastern part will remain the mainland, although, given the rise of ocean waters, it will not hold such a status for a long time.
This is what Antarctica will look like. The current territory is outlined At the moment, many representatives of the plant world are found on the Antarctic Peninsula, islands and coastal oases: flowers, ferns, lichens, algae, and recently their diversity has been gradually increasing. There are also fungi and some bacteria, and seals and penguins occupy the coast. Already now, on the same Antarctic Peninsula, the appearance of tundra is observed, and scientists are sure that with warming there will be both trees and new ones.
By the way, Antarctica holds several records: the lowest recorded temperature on Earth is 89.2 degrees below zero; there is the largest crater on Earth; the strongest and longest winds.
Today there is no permanent population in Antarctica. There are only employees of scientific stations, and sometimes tourists visit it. With climate change, the former cold continent may become suitable for permanent human habitation, but now it is difficult to talk about this with certainty - everything will depend on the current climatic situation.
How will the world change due to the melting of glaciers?
Rising water levels in the world's oceans
So, scientists have calculated that after the ice sheet melts, The sea level will rise by almost 60 meters. And this is a lot and will be equated with a global catastrophe. The coastline will shift significantly, and today's coastal zone of the continents will be under water.
A great flood awaits many of the paradises of our planet If we talk, then its central part will not suffer much. In particular, Moscow is located 130 meters above the current sea level, so the flood will not reach it. Such large cities as Astrakhan, Arkhangelsk, St. Petersburg, Novgorod and Makhachkala will go under water. Crimea will turn into an island - only its mountainous part will rise above the sea. And in the Krasnodar Territory, only Novorossiysk, Anapa and Sochi will be flooded. Siberia and the Urals will not be subjected to too much flooding - mostly residents of coastal settlements will have to be relocated.
The Black Sea will grow - in addition to the northern part of the Crimea and Odessa, it will also clean up Istanbul. Signed cities that will be under water The Baltic states, Denmark and Holland will almost completely disappear. In general, European cities such as London, Rome, Venice, Amsterdam and Copenhagen will go under water along with all their cultural heritage, so while there is time, be sure to visit them and take pictures on Instagram, because your grandchildren will most likely already do this they won't be able to.
The Americans will also have a hard time, who will definitely be left without Washington, New York, Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles and many other large coastal cities.
What will happen to North America. Signed cities that will be under water Climate
The climate will already undergo unpleasant changes that will lead to the melting of the ice sheet. According to environmentalists, the ice of Antarctica, Antarctica and those that are on mountain peaks help maintain the temperature balance on the planet, cooling its atmosphere. Without them, this balance will be upset.
The influx of large amounts of fresh water into the world's oceans will certainly affect direction of major ocean currents, which largely determine the climatic conditions in many regions. So it is not yet possible to say with certainty what will become of our weather.
The number of natural disasters will increase significantly. Hurricanes, typhoons and tornadoes will claim thousands of lives. Paradoxically, due to global warming, some countries will begin to experience lack of fresh water. And not only because of the arid climate. The fact is that deposits of snow in the mountains provide vast territories with water, and after it melts, there will be no such benefit anymore.
Economy
All this will greatly affect the economy, even if the process of flooding is gradual. Take the US and China, for example! Whether you like it or not, these countries greatly influence the economic situation around the world. In addition to the problem of displacing tens of millions of people and losing their capital, the states will lose almost a quarter of their manufacturing capacity, which will ultimately hit the global economy. And China will be forced to say goodbye to its huge trading ports, which will reduce the flow of products to the world market at times.
How are things today?
Some scientists reassure us that the observed melting of glaciers is normal, because. somewhere they disappear, and somewhere they are formed, and thus the balance is maintained. Others point out that there are still reasons for concern, and provide convincing evidence.
Not so long ago, British scientists analyzed 50 million satellite images of the Antarctic ice sheets and came to the conclusion that their melting is very fast. In particular, the gigantic Totten glacier, comparable in size to the territory of France, causes concern. The researchers noticed that it was washed away by warm salty waters, accelerating its decay. According to forecasts, this glacier can raise the level of the World Ocean by as much as 2 meters. It is assumed that the Larsen B glacier will collapse by 2020. And he, by the way, as much as 12,000 years.
According to the BBC, Antarctica loses as much as 160 billion tons of ice every year. And this number is growing rapidly. Scientists say they did not expect such a rapid melting of the southern ice.
By the way, the name "Antarctica" means "opposite the Arctic" or "opposite the north."
The most annoying thing is that the process of melting glaciers further increases the greenhouse effect. The fact is that the ice sheets of our planet reflect part of the sunlight. Without this, heat will linger in the Earth's atmosphere in large volumes, thereby raising the average temperature. And the growing area of the World Ocean, whose waters collect heat, will only aggravate the situation. In addition, a large amount of melt water also adversely affects glaciers. Thus, the ice reserves, not only in Antarctica, but throughout the globe, are melting faster and faster, which ultimately threatens with big problems.
Conclusion
Opinions of scientists about the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet are very different, but what is known for certain is that man, through his activities, greatly affects the climate. If humanity does not solve the problem of global warming in the next 100 years, then the process will be inevitable.
Scientists from the world's leading research centers have been trying to predict the consequences of global warming for many years. The most terrible of them is the melting of glaciers, which will lead to an increase in the water level in the world ocean and, as a result, the flooding of a number of territories, including large cities.
The figures are different every year - some say that in a few decades almost half of modern megacities will go under water. Others are sure: neither we nor our children and grandchildren have anything to fear - humanity will feel serious consequences only after hundreds of years. And yet, the fear of a new global flood is becoming more and more real every year - remember at least a large-scale flood in Europe, a flood in the Far East and the consequences of Hurricane Sandy in New York.
The forecast of scientists from the Potsdam Institute for the Study of Climate Change (Germany) says that by 2100 the level of the World Ocean will rise by 0.75 - 1.5 meters due to the melting of continental ice.
In this case, in 100 years, Venice will go under water, in another 50 (by 2150) - Amsterdam, Hamburg, St. Petersburg, and then other large metropolitan areas nearby.
But Russia, in this case, is threatened not so much by water as by refugees from other countries - according to scientists, if the water rises by a meter, they will be forced to change their place of residence 72 million Chinese. And where do they flee, if not to Russia, what do you think?
Forecast of Russian scientists
It was set out in the Climate Doctrine adopted by the Government and is perhaps the most optimistic in the world. But, nevertheless, the Minister of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation Yuri Trutnev, presenting the draft document, said that there is a real threat to our cities already in the century ahead.
Over the past century, the water level has risen 10 cm, whereas when the ocean level rises by the same amount already to 2050 -2070 years, a significant part of the territory and almost the entire Yamal may be flooded.
With growth on 20 see parts of the Arkhangelsk and Murmansk regions and a number of other territories of the country are at risk of flooding.
Forecast by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research
sea level could rise by 1,4 meters to 2100 year. Scientists did not calculate the consequences for the Russians, but even if our specialists 10 cm is considered a critical figure, imagine what will happen with an increase of almost one and a half meters!
Island nations (Maldives in the Indian Ocean or Tuvalu in the Pacific) will definitely go into oblivion, Calcutta will be flooded, and London, New York and Shanghai will have to spend about $ 150 billion on flood protection. (this figure was calculated by the Americans for themselves).
Refugees will become 100 million people in Asia 14 million Europeans, and if the latter can still find a place for themselves in unflooded areas, then the former, most likely, will "flow" into Russia.
WWF Forecast
(WWF) turned out to be rather vague - scientists do not name exact numbers, but they say that by the end XXI century, the consequences of global warming will threaten to flood large cities, including St. Petersburg, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Calcutta.
Russian experts, however, commenting on the report, said that they were ready to vouch for the safety of St. Petersburg with their heads - according to their calculations, the level of the world ocean while maintaining the current pace 100 years will increase by 30 centimeters, and nothing threatens the city on the Neva. I wonder why then their colleagues who wrote the national doctrine are even worried about 10 cm?
National Geographic Forecast
One of the most pessimistic True, it is designed for an indefinite period, but the rate of glacier melting is growing from year to year, so that a thousand years may well be reduced to a couple of centuries.
According to scientists, with the complete melting of glaciers, the level of the world's seas will rise by approximately 65 meters, and the average temperature on the planet will increase from 14 before 26 degrees. In this case, Florida, the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and most of California will be flooded in North America.
In Latin America, Buenos Aires, as well as coastal Uruguay and Paraguay, will go under water. In Europe, London, Venice, the Netherlands and most of Denmark will be destroyed by the elements.
But scientists believe that Russia will suffer most of all due to the spill of the Black and Caspian Seas. The entire floodplain will go under water along with Volgograd, as well as partially Astrakhan, Rostov regions and the Republic of Kalmykia. In the north of Russia, St. Petersburg, Petrozavodsk and other smaller cities will fall into the flood zone.
Due to the melting of glaciers, Paris and London will become islands, a sea will appear in the Urals, and Russia will become an industrial leader.
Map of Europe after sea level rise. KEES VEENENBOS.
They say that global warming was invented by Al Gore, who worked as Vice President of the United States in the administration of Bill Clinton. It was Gor who ingeniously realized that with the help of ecology, you can make money (through greenhouse gas emission quotas) and put pressure on competing economies. This is how the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 1997 Kyoto Protocol supplementing it appeared, on the basis of which, on January 1, 2008, the mechanism for trading in quotas began to function.
However, it should be recognized that the climate is really changing and scientists are fixing it. This is not about some abstract increase in the average annual temperature by a fraction of a degree, but about the consequences that have a quite tangible impact on people's lives today.
For example, at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly conference held in April 2016 in Vienna, a group of scientists led by Marcel Nikolaus from the Helmholtz Center in Bremerhaven made a report from which it follows that the most significant reduction in the area of Arctic ice in the entire history of observations will occur next summer. And specialists from the UK Met Office expect new heat records this year, despite the fact that last, 2015, has already been recognized by them as the warmest in 146 years.
How Paris becomes an island
NASA and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimate that global sea levels are now rising at about 3.2 mm per year. This is a lot: back in 2012, the process speed was only 1.9 mm. At first glance, the numbers are not impressive, but this process has already led to the beginning of the splitting of large glacial masses. For example, a piece of 12 sq. km. If the entire glacier slides into the ocean, this will lead to a rise in sea level by 50 centimeters.
And the matter is not limited to one Greenland glacier. In the next 10-15 years, the prospect of the complete disappearance of the polar ice cap in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer, as well as a progressive reduction in ice volumes in other places, including mountain ranges on the continents, is quite real. The UN predicts that over the next hundred years the level of the world's seas will rise by 6.4 meters.
It's time to remember that Venice and Astrakhan are only 1 meter above the current ocean, Kaliningrad and Odessa - 2 meters, Pisa and Bruges - 3, Vladivostok and Bangkok - 4, Shanghai and St. Petersburg - 6, Sochi - 9 meters.
Melting ice will globally change the map of the world. Australia, for example, will shrink by a quarter. The Netherlands - by 40%. The Dutch will definitely not be able to build even a 7-meter wall along the entire 451-kilometer coastline, and even protect the floodplains of numerous rivers - this is beyond the capabilities of the national economy.
In short, in 100 years the Netherlands will be the bottom of the sea. And they are not alone. Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Great Britain will turn into a handful of different-sized islands. Paris and London will become cities on the islands.
Most of Turkey, part of Iran and almost the entire territory of North Africa, including Egypt, will go under water.
Russia will be separated from Europe by a huge sea that arose as a result of the confluence of the Caspian, Black, Kara and Baltic seas. It will wash away the entire Baltic, except for a small part of the south of Lithuania, the east of Belarus and the northeast of Ukraine. Also, the Ural lowland will turn into a shallow sea, and the Ural Mountains will become islands.
Houseboats on the coast of the Netherlands. Photo: iagua.es
Good and bad climate change
Such global changes will cause many accompanying processes. For example, more than 800 million people live in Europe today. The flooding of its territory will create the problem of their survival, which means it will give rise to migration processes comparable in consequences to the Great Migration of Nations.
The progressive increase in average annual temperature will lead to a reduction in agricultural productivity in tropical and subtropical regions. It will become not only too hot, but also not humid enough. In particular, desertification could threaten the entire African continent south of the Sahara, but the prospect of a steppe climate there (as in present-day Kalmykia) is more likely, since a fair part of the black continent will also become islands.
In general, according to WHO forecasts, over the next hundred years, the number of hungry people will increase by 600 million people in Africa alone, and in the whole world it can reach 2 billion. For Russia, this will mean the opportunity to become the dominant world food producer. The current agricultural areas - the Don basin, the North Caucasus, the Lower Volga region, the Southern Urals, Altai and the steppe part of Southern Siberia - will be negatively affected by the aggravated water shortage during the growing season, which will reduce their productivity by 20-30%. But at the same time, global changes will make vast new parts of the country's territory in Siberia and the Far East accessible to normal mass farming. So far, soil fertility there is significantly lower than in the Chernozem zone, but the change in flora will gradually enrich the Siberian soil.
Geography and Economics
Despite the frank alarmism of the study, this scenario promises Russia much more advantages than problems. We, as a state, will be able to preserve not only most of the territory in general, but also the bulk of the most developed and technically developed areas. The flooding of part of the Urals and Western Siberia, of course, will necessitate the resettlement of 10-12 million people, but, firstly, there is where, and secondly, there is enough time for this. The problem with the resettlement of St. Petersburg will turn out to be noticeably more serious (especially if a decision is made to move the unique architectural complex of the city to a new location), but this is nothing compared to the densification of the French, who will be left with 10-13% of the country's territory.
And most importantly, Russia will be able to retain the largest part of its industrial potential, only a fifth of which is located at the bottom of future seas. In the US, this share is at least 67%, in China - 72-75%. The fact is that most American and Chinese factories are built in the coastal strip - it is more convenient to deliver their products to ports for loading onto ships. In Russia, the main part of the coast is northern, so factories had to be built on rivers. Changes will surely affect the role and place of our country in a globally warmer world in the future.
Of course, one should not take all these predictions too literally and straightforwardly. They are made by humans, and humans make mistakes. But we can say with confidence that the world is changing at an unprecedented pace, and tomorrow will not be the same as it was yesterday. Change is inevitable and global. But we have time to think, prepare and methodically adapt to the new reality.
It is always interesting to imagine very improbable, but in principle real things. What would happen if all the ice on Earth, which is more than 20 million cubic kilometers, melted?
National Geographic has created a series of interactive maps that show what kind of catastrophic consequences would occur on our planet. The melted ice, which would have entered the oceans and seas, would have led to a sea level rise of 65 meters. It would engulf cities and countries, changing the general appearance of continents and coastlines, wiping out entire populations from the face of the earth.
Scientists believe it will take about 5,000 years for temperatures to rise enough to melt all the ice on Earth. However, a start has already been made.
Over the past century, the temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.5 degrees Celsius, and this has led to a sea level rise of 17 cm.
If we continue to burn coal, oil and gas reserves, the average temperature on our planet will reach 26.6 degrees Celsius instead of today's 14.4 degrees Celsius.
So let's see what will become of the continents...
In Europe, cities like London and Venice will be under water. It will also flood the Netherlands and most of Denmark. The Mediterranean Sea will expand and increase the size of the Black and Caspian Seas.
In Asia, China and Bangladesh will be flooded, and more than 760 million people will be under water. Among the destroyed cities will be: Karachi, Baghdad, Dubai, Calcutta, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo and Beijing. The coast of India will also decrease significantly.
In North America, the entire Atlantic coastline in the US will disappear along with Florida and the Gulf Coast. In California, the hills of San Francisco will turn into islands, and the California Valley will become a huge bay.
In South America, the Amazonian lowland and the Paraguay river basin will become the straits of the Atlantic Ocean, wiping out Buenos Aires, coastal Uruguay and part of Paraguay.
Compared to other continents, Africa will lose less land mass due to rising sea levels. However, rising temperatures will lead to the fact that most of it will become uninhabitable. In Egypt, Alexandria and Cairo will be flooded by the Mediterranean Sea.
Australia will have a continental sea, but it will lose most of the narrow coastal strip where 4 out of 5 Australians live.
In Antarctica, what was once land ice will no longer be ice or land. This will happen because under the ice there is a continental relief, which is below sea level.
What does Antarctica look like without ice?
Antarctica is the largest ice sheet in the world, but what is under it?
Scientists from NASA have shown the surface of Antarctica, which has been hidden under a thick layer of ice for more than 30 million years. In a project called BedMap2, researchers calculated the total amount of ice in Antarctica to predict sea level rise in the future. To do this, they needed to know the underlying topography, including wide valleys and hidden mountain ranges.
Some of the most impressive discoveries in Antarctica were the deepest point of all continents, the valley below the Byrd Glacier, which is located at a distance of 2780 meters below sea level. The scientists also received the first detailed images of the Gamburtsev Mountains, which are under a 1.6-kilometer layer of ice.
The new map is based on surface elevation, ice thickness and base topography, which were taken using land, air and satellite surveys. The scientists also used radar, sound waves, and electromagnetic instruments to map.
