Siberian scientists have predicted a new ice age. The Fifth Ice Age Coming to Earth

© kinopoisk.ru. Frame from the movie "The Day After Tomorrow"

15 May 2018, 07:13

Siberian scientists have confirmed the hypothesis that the next ice age will begin on Earth in 30 thousand years. But the Little Ice Ages and other climatic cataclysms are difficult to predict.

In 1920, the Serbian researcher Milutin Milanković developed a theory according to which the alternation of glacial and interglacial (Holocene) epochs is associated with a change in the Earth's orbit as it moves around the Sun. Based on the calculations, it was concluded that the next global cooling will begin in about 30 thousand years. But, according to the Institute of Geology and Mineralogy of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, there are still few empirical data for accurate research.

Scientists traced the deposits of loess (aeolian dust sediment that accumulated during ice ages) and soil that formed during the interglacial period in Western Siberia. "Science in Siberia" writes about the results of the study.

“There are numerous sections in Western Siberia that can be used to reconstruct the climate of the past. The most interesting of them are sections of the loess-soil sequence, they reflect the global climate record in the Quaternary period,” said Vladimir Zykin, Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences, Professor of Novosibirsk State University.

Soils in many regions of the world formed synchronously. The cyclicity of their formation coincided with the periodicity of changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth, which, according to calculations, about 400 thousand years ago were similar to modern ones, the scientists noted.

“The fossil soil corresponding to this time and formed under the same geomorphological conditions has a thickness three times greater than the modern one, which indicates that the duration of this epoch of soil formation, occurring in the warm conditions of the interglacial, was also three times longer. Therefore, there is no reason to say that in the near future the modern interglacial era will end and a major glaciation will come. It will continue for more than 30,000 years,” said Valentina Zykina, a leading researcher at the institute.

At the same time, as the researchers specify, within each of the major epochs of cooling and warming there were smaller periods of sharp climate change. “These events are quasi-periodic, so it is quite difficult to predict them, in addition, they can manifest themselves locally,” the newspaper writes. The last Little Ice Age began, according to various sources, from the 12th or 15th centuries - a drop in temperature by one to three degrees in Europe caused outbreaks of crop failure and famine, plague and cholera epidemics. In addition, the climate was influenced by large volcanic eruptions, the emissions of which, once in the stratosphere, reflected the sun's rays.

The Little Ice Age ended at the end of the 19th century. Since then, the warming began, which continues to this day.

Was there an ice age?

Everyone knows that there was an ice age on Earth! And some believe that not one. But in this matter, you need to be extremely careful. Many scientists urge not to exaggerate the power and vastness of glaciers - to put it mildly.

Here is the opinion of our scientist, Professor Valery Nikitich Demin:

“Scientific, educational and reference literature is dominated by an indisputable, at first glance, opinion: the northern territories of Eurasia were inhabited by humans no earlier than the 15th millennium BC, and before that all these lands were completely covered with a powerful continental glacier, which, in principle, excluded all life and migrations. In essence, the glacier forged history itself!

However, the above absolutized dogma is contradicted primarily by archaeological data. The dated age of the oldest sites within the boundaries of the postulated glacial zone in the North of Eurasia begins with a two hundred thousand year mark, and then smoothly and consistently passes through all the centuries up to the times visible and already reflected in written monuments.

For example, according to various sources, the age of the Byzovskaya site on the Pechora ranges from 20 to 40 thousand years. In any case, material facts testify: life flourished here just at the time when, according to the "glacial theory", there could be no life. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of such sites and other material monuments in the Arctic zone of Russia. So, there is a glaring contradiction. But if only one!

You can look at the problem, so to speak, from the other end. Why does continental glaciation not repeat itself in the current, no less severe conditions, say, in Eastern Siberia, at the "pole of cold"? These and many other indisputable facts have long cast doubt on the scale and consequences of the glacial cataclysm that once befell our planet.”

Seven books directed against glacial dogma, which paralyzed science and ironed history like a glacier, were written by Academician Ivan Grigoryevich Pidoplichko (1905–1975), who until the end of his life headed the Institute of Zoology of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. But try to find these books today. In the Russian State Library, the four-volume (!) monograph “On the Ice Age” (edition 1946–1956) has been archived and is not given to readers. Books containing and summarizing unique geological, climatological, botanical and zoological material that refutes the "glacial theory" in its current dogmatic form are not freely available in other libraries either.

This tragicomic situation is reminiscent of the case told by the author of the forbidden theme himself. When glacialists, that is, supporters of the “glacial theory”, once discovered a second fossil soil in the pits, and according to their attitudes, there should be only one, the “extra” was simply covered up, and the expedition was declared “allegedly never-before”. In the same way, non-glacial processes of formation of boulder deposits are hushed up. The origin of boulders is usually explained by the “flattening” of ice, although boulders are found at a considerable depth in polar quarries.

The supporters of absolutized dogmas also ignore the opinion of the founder of paleoclimatology in Russia, Alexander Ivanovich Voeikov (1842–1916), who considered the existence of an extensive European glaciation unlikely and allowed only a partial one in the north of Eurasia and America.

As for central Russia, here Voeikov was more than categorical: in accordance with his calculations, an ice shell at the latitude of Russian chernozems would automatically entail the transformation of the earth's atmosphere over this territory into a solid block of ice. Naturally, this did not happen, and therefore there was no picture of glaciation, which is usually drawn on the pages of textbooks.

Therefore, it is necessary to compare the glacial hypothesis with known historical realities more than carefully.

Summing up the accumulated facts and summing up the general state of the problem of the so-called ice ages, I.G. Pidoplichko concluded that THERE ARE NO FACTS - GEOLOGICAL, PALEONTOLOGICAL OR BIOLOGICAL - CONFIRMING THE EXISTENCE ANYWHERE ON THE EARTH IN ANY PERIOD OF ITS DEVELOPMENT OF MATERIAL (NOT MOUNTAIN) glaciation.

“And there is no reason to predict,” the scientist emphasized, “that such facts will ever be discovered.”

Ustin Chashchikhin is even more categorical: "IN THE PRESENT GEOCHRONOLOGY THERE IS PLACE ONLY FOR ONE ICE AGE, WHICH IS NOT CONTRADICTING WITH THE FACTS."

A. Sklyarov in his article “Does the fate of Phaeton await the Earth?” writes:

“The popularity of the theory of plate tectonics and the commitment of official scientific circles to it at one time gave rise to such a widely known myth as the Great Gondwana glaciation, which allegedly lasted right from the Ordovician to the end of the Permian (that is, it lasted about 200 million years!) And captured all the continents that made up Gondwana ( Africa, South America, Antarctica and Australia) ... It should, however, be noted that a certain cooling, although not on such a scale, did take place during this period.

Tell me, my reader, can anything living exist for 200 million years on Earth covered with ice?

The point of view of the above-mentioned scientists seems convincing to me, and I will not talk about the ice age, but about a sharp short-term jump in cooling on Earth. Immediately after the geocosmic cataclysm, a sharp drop in atmospheric temperature is coming.

Assumed separation from -50 °C to -100 °C. Estimated duration is two years.

The nature of the remains of "prehistoric" animals found around the world clearly indicates their almost instantaneous freezing. About the animals found in Alaska, A. Alford literally says the following: “ These animals ... died so suddenly that they immediately froze before they could decompose - and this is confirmed by the fact that local residents often thawed carcasses and ate meat". That's how, even the meat was preserved?! Really 75 million years has lain and has not deteriorated? Or is it still better to admit that the disaster was recent?

The catastrophe ended with the formation of permanent ice at the poles. The permafrost front passes through the northern latitudes, it seems to have fixed the border of the ancient ecumene and the lands formed as a result of the movement of tectonic plates, which indicates that when the catastrophe ended, the geomagnetic position of our planet was already the same (or approximately the same) as we are we see it today. There was, however, a second shift of tectonic plates; although strong enough, it will not have such a destructive character. The second shift is still to be discussed.

One large piece of land, breaking away, stopped at the south pole. But here's what, dear reader, is curious: there are maps of the XIV-XVI centuries, which depict Antarctica. But after all, it will be “discovered” only in the 19th century!

(This atlas is still kept in the National Museum of Istanbul.) His maps depict Greenland, North and South America with the Amazon, the Falkland Islands, and the Andes mountains, not yet known at that time, the Amazon is depicted with amazing accuracy.

But Magellan will go on his first circumnavigation of the world only after another seven years!

Based on ancient primary sources, the map of Mukhiddin Piri Reis depicts a large (now gone) island in the Atlantic Ocean east of the South American coast. Is it just a coincidence that this supposed island is depicted just above the underwater Meridional Mid-Atlantic Ridge, just north of the equator and 700 miles east of the coast of Brazil - where the tiny rocks of Saints Peter and Paul barely peep out of the waves?

But the miracles don't end there. Antarctica is also shown on the same map, and it can be seen that the coastlines and terrain are presented with a certainty that can only be achieved with high-altitude aerial photography, and even shooting from space. The southernmost continent of the planet on the Reis map is devoid of ice cover! The Reis map not only shows the coastline, but also rivers, mountain ranges and mountain peaks!

Tropical animals are depicted: a monkey, a roe deer, a lemur, an animal similar to a cow. Two large tailless monkeys, standing on their hind limbs, hold hands, as if dancing. Or maybe it's people? I could not resist, I found these ancient maps on the Internet, so that it was not from other people's words. So I am writing what I have seen.

It is curious that ships with a perfect sailing system are also shown on the map!

And we are told that Antarctica was discovered in January 1820 by the Russian expedition of F.F. Bellingshausen - M.P. Lazarev.

Greenland on Reis's maps also has no ice cover and consists of two islands (a fact recently confirmed by a French expedition)! In short, Greenland is depicted in the way that, according to the official version, it could only be related to the geographical picture of the planet five thousand years ago! An analysis of the maps of Piri Reis by Dr. Afetinan Tarikh Kurumu in the book “The Oldest Map of America” (Ankara, 1954) and an examination conducted by the American Institute of Marine Hydrocartography revealed the incredible accuracy of these maps, which depict even the recently discovered mountain ranges of Antarctica and Greenland. And among other things, such accuracy, according to experts, can be obtained exclusively with the help of aerial photography. Piri Reis explains the origin of these cards in this way. They were found in the hands of a Spanish navigator who participated in three expeditions of Christopher Columbus, who was taken prisoner by the Turkish officer Kemal during a naval battle. Piri Reis points out in his notes that, according to the Spaniard, Columbus sailed to the New World using these maps!!! Piri Reis maps are stored in Istanbul (Constantinople) in the Imperial Library, of which the admiral was an honorary reader. Thus, based on all of the above, we can conclude that quite recently Antarctica and Greenland were without ice!

At the end of 1959, Charles X. Hapgood, a professor at Keene College (New Hampshire, USA), discovered a map compiled by Oronteus Phineus at the Library of Congress in Washington. And on the Phineus map (1531), Antarctica is also shown without its ice shell! The general outline of the continent coincides with what is shown on modern maps. Almost in place, almost in the center of the continent, lies the South Pole. The mountain ranges fringing the shores are reminiscent of the numerous ridges discovered in recent years, and enough not to consider this an accidental product of the cartographer's imagination. These ridges have been identified, some on the coast, some in the distance. From many of them, rivers flowed to the sea, very naturally and convincingly fitting into the folds of the relief. Of course, this assumes that the coast was ice-free at the time the map was drawn. The central part of the continent on the map is free from rivers and mountains. As shown by seismographic studies in 1958, the relief depicted on the map is true.

Question: how could the boundaries of the Antarctic land be depicted if the glaciation of the mainland (again according to the official chronology) began 25 million years ago?

Gerard Kremer, known to the whole world under the name of Mercator, also trusted the maps of Fineus. The result of the study of ancient maps by MIT professor Richard Strachan: their compilation requires knowledge of geometric triangulation methods and an understanding of spherical trigonometry.

And apparently, the compilers of the "primary sources" used by Piri Reis and other compilers of ancient maps had such knowledge. In particular, Hapgood also discovered a Chinese map copied in 1137 from an earlier original on a stone pillar. This map contains the same exact longitude data as the others. It has the same grid and also uses spherical trigonometry.

Modern science knows other "strange" maps, which are united by the presence of geographical objects unknown at the time of their creation and the incredible accuracy of coordinate values. These, besides those listed, are Dulcert's portolan (1339), Zeno's map (1380), Yehuda Ben Zara's "Portolano", Hadji Ahmet's maps (1559), Mercator's maps (1538), Gutierre's maps (1562). .), Philippe Boucher (XVIII century).

But the most interesting thing is that I have not seen Australia on any map! And Antarctica has a different shape and is twice as large as modern. The mainland is so large that it rests on South America and almost reaches Africa. And the northeastern borders of Antarctica exactly copy the northern borders of modern Australia. Well, isn't it suspicious? We must finally muster up the courage to admit that the history of the geography of the Earth and the chronology of events in reality look very different.

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Everyone knows that there was an ice age on Earth! And some believe that not one. But in this matter, you need to be extremely careful. Many scientists urge not to exaggerate the power and vastness of glaciers - to put it mildly.

Here is the opinion of our scientist, Professor Valery Nikitich Demin:

“Scientific, educational and reference literature is dominated by an indisputable, at first glance, opinion: the northern territories of Eurasia were inhabited by humans no earlier than the 15th millennium BC, and before that all these lands were completely covered with a powerful continental glacier, which, in principle, excluded all life and migrations. In essence, the glacier forged history itself!

However, the above absolutized dogma is contradicted primarily by archaeological data. The dated age of the oldest sites within the boundaries of the postulated glacial zone in the North of Eurasia begins with a two hundred thousand year mark, and then smoothly and consistently passes through all the centuries up to the times visible and already reflected in written monuments.

For example, according to various sources, the age of the Byzovskaya site on the Pechora ranges from 20 to 40 thousand years. In any case, material facts testify: life flourished here just at the time when, according to the "glacial theory", there could be no life. There are hundreds, if not thousands, of such sites and other material monuments in the Arctic zone of Russia. So, there is a glaring contradiction. But if only one!

You can look at the problem, so to speak, from the other end. Why does continental glaciation not repeat itself in the current, no less severe conditions, say, in Eastern Siberia, at the "pole of cold"? These and many other indisputable facts have long cast doubt on the scale and consequences of the glacial cataclysm that once befell our planet.”

Seven books directed against glacial dogma, which paralyzed science and ironed history like a glacier, were written by Academician Ivan Grigoryevich Pidoplichko (1905–1975), who until the end of his life headed the Institute of Zoology of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. But try to find these books today. In the Russian State Library, the four-volume (!) monograph “On the Ice Age” (edition 1946–1956) has been archived and is not given to readers. Books containing and summarizing unique geological, climatological, botanical and zoological material that refutes the "glacial theory" in its current dogmatic form are not freely available in other libraries either.

This tragicomic situation is reminiscent of the case told by the author of the forbidden theme himself. When glacialists, that is, supporters of the “glacial theory”, once discovered a second fossil soil in the pits, and according to their attitudes, there should be only one, the “extra” was simply covered up, and the expedition was declared “allegedly never-before”. In the same way, non-glacial processes of formation of boulder deposits are hushed up. The origin of boulders is usually explained by the “flattening” of ice, although boulders are found at a considerable depth in polar quarries.

The supporters of absolutized dogmas also ignore the opinion of the founder of paleoclimatology in Russia, Alexander Ivanovich Voeikov (1842–1916), who considered the existence of an extensive European glaciation unlikely and allowed only a partial one in the north of Eurasia and America.

As for central Russia, here Voeikov was more than categorical: in accordance with his calculations, an ice shell at the latitude of Russian chernozems would automatically entail the transformation of the earth's atmosphere over this territory into a solid block of ice. Naturally, this did not happen, and therefore there was no picture of glaciation, which is usually drawn on the pages of textbooks.

Therefore, it is necessary to compare the glacial hypothesis with known historical realities more than carefully.

Summing up the accumulated facts and summing up the general state of the problem of the so-called ice ages, I.G. Pidoplichko concluded that THERE ARE NO FACTS - GEOLOGICAL, PALEONTOLOGICAL OR BIOLOGICAL - CONFIRMING THE EXISTENCE ANYWHERE ON THE EARTH IN ANY PERIOD OF ITS DEVELOPMENT OF MATERIAL (NOT MOUNTAIN) glaciation.

“And there is no reason to predict,” the scientist emphasized, “that such facts will ever be discovered.”

Ustin Chashchikhin is even more categorical: "IN THE PRESENT GEOCHRONOLOGY THERE IS PLACE ONLY FOR ONE ICE AGE, WHICH IS NOT CONTRADICTING WITH THE FACTS."

A. Sklyarov in his article “Does the fate of Phaeton await the Earth?” writes:

“The popularity of the theory of plate tectonics and the commitment of official scientific circles to it at one time gave rise to such a widely known myth as the Great Gondwana glaciation, which allegedly lasted right from the Ordovician to the end of the Permian (that is, it lasted about 200 million years!) And captured all the continents that made up Gondwana ( Africa, South America, Antarctica and Australia) ... It should, however, be noted that a certain cooling, although not on such a scale, did take place during this period.

Tell me, my reader, can anything living exist for 200 million years on Earth covered with ice?

The point of view of the above-mentioned scientists seems convincing to me, and I will not talk about the ice age, but about a sharp short-term jump in cooling on Earth. Immediately after the geocosmic cataclysm, a sharp drop in atmospheric temperature is coming.

Assumed separation from -50 °C to -100 °C. Estimated duration is two years.

The nature of the remains of "prehistoric" animals found around the world clearly indicates their almost instantaneous freezing. About the animals found in Alaska, A. Alford literally says the following: “ These animals ... died so suddenly that they immediately froze before they could decompose - and this is confirmed by the fact that local residents often thawed carcasses and ate meat". That's how, even the meat was preserved?! Really 75 million years has lain and has not deteriorated? Or is it still better to admit that the disaster was recent?

The catastrophe ended with the formation of permanent ice at the poles. The permafrost front passes through the northern latitudes, it seems to have fixed the border of the ancient ecumene and the lands formed as a result of the movement of tectonic plates, which indicates that when the catastrophe ended, the geomagnetic position of our planet was already the same (or approximately the same) as we are we see it today. There was, however, a second shift of tectonic plates; although strong enough, it will not have such a destructive character. The second shift is still to be discussed.

One large piece of land, breaking away, stopped at the south pole. But here's what, dear reader, is curious: there are maps of the XIV-XVI centuries, which depict Antarctica. But after all, it will be “discovered” only in the 19th century!

(This atlas is still kept in the National Museum of Istanbul.) His maps depict Greenland, North and South America with the Amazon, the Falkland Islands, and the Andes mountains, not yet known at that time, the Amazon is depicted with amazing accuracy.

But Magellan will go on his first circumnavigation of the world only after another seven years!

Based on ancient primary sources, the map of Mukhiddin Piri Reis depicts a large (now gone) island in the Atlantic Ocean east of the South American coast. Is it just a coincidence that this supposed island is depicted just above the underwater Meridional Mid-Atlantic Ridge, just north of the equator and 700 miles east of the coast of Brazil - where the tiny rocks of Saints Peter and Paul barely peep out of the waves?

But the miracles don't end there. Antarctica is also shown on the same map, and it can be seen that the coastlines and terrain are presented with a certainty that can only be achieved with high-altitude aerial photography, and even shooting from space. The southernmost continent of the planet on the Reis map is devoid of ice cover! The Reis map not only shows the coastline, but also rivers, mountain ranges and mountain peaks!

Tropical animals are depicted: a monkey, a roe deer, a lemur, an animal similar to a cow. Two large tailless monkeys, standing on their hind limbs, hold hands, as if dancing. Or maybe it's people? I could not resist, I found these ancient maps on the Internet, so that it was not from other people's words. So I am writing what I have seen.

It is curious that ships with a perfect sailing system are also shown on the map!

And we are told that Antarctica was discovered in January 1820 by the Russian expedition of F.F. Bellingshausen - M.P. Lazarev.

Greenland on Reis's maps also has no ice cover and consists of two islands (a fact recently confirmed by a French expedition)! In short, Greenland is depicted in the way that, according to the official version, it could only be related to the geographical picture of the planet five thousand years ago! An analysis of the maps of Piri Reis by Dr. Afetinan Tarikh Kurumu in the book “The Oldest Map of America” (Ankara, 1954) and an examination conducted by the American Institute of Marine Hydrocartography revealed the incredible accuracy of these maps, which depict even the recently discovered mountain ranges of Antarctica and Greenland. And among other things, such accuracy, according to experts, can be obtained exclusively with the help of aerial photography. Piri Reis explains the origin of these cards in this way. They were found in the hands of a Spanish navigator who participated in three expeditions of Christopher Columbus, who was taken prisoner by the Turkish officer Kemal during a naval battle. Piri Reis points out in his notes that, according to the Spaniard, Columbus sailed to the New World using these maps!!! Piri Reis maps are stored in Istanbul (Constantinople) in the Imperial Library, of which the admiral was an honorary reader. Thus, based on all of the above, we can conclude that quite recently Antarctica and Greenland were without ice!

At the end of 1959, Charles X. Hapgood, a professor at Keene College (New Hampshire, USA), discovered a map compiled by Oronteus Phineus at the Library of Congress in Washington. And on the Phineus map (1531), Antarctica is also shown without its ice shell! The general outline of the continent coincides with what is shown on modern maps. Almost in place, almost in the center of the continent, lies the South Pole. The mountain ranges fringing the shores are reminiscent of the numerous ridges discovered in recent years, and enough not to consider this an accidental product of the cartographer's imagination. These ridges have been identified, some on the coast, some in the distance. From many of them, rivers flowed to the sea, very naturally and convincingly fitting into the folds of the relief. Of course, this assumes that the coast was ice-free at the time the map was drawn. The central part of the continent on the map is free from rivers and mountains. As shown by seismographic studies in 1958, the relief depicted on the map is true.

Question: how could the boundaries of the Antarctic land be depicted if the glaciation of the mainland (again according to the official chronology) began 25 million years ago?

Gerard Kremer, known to the whole world under the name of Mercator, also trusted the maps of Fineus. The result of the study of ancient maps by MIT professor Richard Strachan: their compilation requires knowledge of geometric triangulation methods and an understanding of spherical trigonometry.

And apparently, the compilers of the "primary sources" used by Piri Reis and other compilers of ancient maps had such knowledge. In particular, Hapgood also discovered a Chinese map copied in 1137 from an earlier original on a stone pillar. This map contains the same exact longitude data as the others. It has the same grid and also uses spherical trigonometry.

Modern science knows other "strange" maps, which are united by the presence of geographical objects unknown at the time of their creation and the incredible accuracy of coordinate values. These, besides those listed, are Dulcert's portolan (1339), Zeno's map (1380), Yehuda Ben Zara's "Portolano", Hadji Ahmet's maps (1559), Mercator's maps (1538), Gutierre's maps (1562). .), Philippe Boucher (XVIII century).

But the most interesting thing is that I have not seen Australia on any map! And Antarctica has a different shape and is twice as large as modern. The mainland is so large that it rests on South America and almost reaches Africa. And the northeastern borders of Antarctica exactly copy the northern borders of modern Australia. Well, isn't it suspicious? We must finally muster up the courage to admit that the history of the geography of the Earth and the chronology of events in reality look very different.

Predictions about how our climate will change often contradict each other. What awaits us: global warming or a new ice age? Researchers from the Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology, Paleoclimatology and Mineralogical Climate Indicators named after V. S. Sobolev SB RAS suggest that both of them are only of different scales and at different times.

"The modern climate and natural environment were finally formed in the so-called Quaternary period - a stage in the geological history of the Earth, which began 2.588 million years ago and continues to this day. This period is characterized by the alternation of glacial and interglacial epochs. In certain stages of it, powerful glaciations occurred when glacial shields up to three kilometers thick moved far to the south, in Western Siberia they reached approximately to Khanty-Mansiysk, and in Europe to 48 degrees north latitude.Moscow and even Kiev stand on glacial deposits.Now we live in a warm interglacial era called the Holocene ", - says the head of the laboratory of Cenozoic geology, paleoclimatology and mineralogical indicators of climate, doctor of geological and mineralogical sciences, professor at Novosibirsk State University Vladimir Sergeevich Zykin.

The climate is one of the most complex systems on earth. It consists of the interaction of a huge number of factors: solar activity, the location of the continents and oceans, land relief, albedo (reflectivity) of the Earth, changes in the orbit of our planet, volcanism, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and also, possibly, anthropogenic influence.

When the first more or less reliable data on the climate of the Quaternary period appeared, it was believed that interglacial epochs lasted only ten thousand years. The most recent of these is the Holocene in which we live. It began about 10 thousand years ago. In the 1972s, the famous American paleoclimatologists George Doll and Robley Matthews, based on the data available at that time on the duration of glacial and interglacial epochs, turned to US President Richard Nixon, where they reported that the Holocene, in which mankind had existed for 10 thousand years, was ending , and we need to prepare for a global glaciation.

Today, the alternation of major glacial and interglacial epochs is explained by the orbital theory developed by the Serbian researcher Milutin Milanković back in the 1920s, according to which these processes were associated with a change in the Earth's orbit as it moved around the Sun. The scientist calculated the changes in orbital elements and made an approximate "glaciation schedule" in the Quaternary period. The followers of Milankovitch calculated that the duration of the Holocene should be about 40 thousand years. That is, for another 30 thousand years, humanity can sleep peacefully.

The modern concept of the orbital theory links climate changes in the past with changes in solar insolation reaching the Earth's surface. This is due to fluctuations of the elements of the orbit with a frequency of 100 thousand years (elongation of the orbit), 41 thousand years (tilt of the Earth's axis to the plane of the ecliptic) and 23 thousand years (precession of the earth's axis). However, there are still very few empirical data to establish the duration of glacial and interglacial epochs on Earth.

Reliable information about temperature appeared only in 1727, when Fahrenheit created a thermometer with reproducible measurements. To date, there is only one continuous temperature series over 300 years, the Manly series in Central England. It is used to model the modern climate. The state of the atmosphere in the more distant past can only be judged by indirect signs - the so-called climate indicators, which are studied by Siberian scientists.

"The study of climate evolution in the past makes it possible to understand the spatial and temporal unevenness of the climate response to global events and makes it possible to predict what will happen to the natural environment in various regions in the near future," says Vladimir Zykin. "The most accurate and reliable data on climate change can be obtained for the last segment of the Earth's existence, approximately 30 million years. We are dealing with just this interval. In Western Siberia, there are numerous sections from which it is possible to reconstruct the climate of the past. The most interesting of them are sections of the loess-soil sequence, they reflect the global record of climate in the Quaternary."

Loess is a sediment of eolian dust that accumulated during ice ages. When the climate cooled, aridization (dryness) increased, the intensity of the atmosphere increased sharply due to the high temperature gradient between the pole and the equator - where there was an ice sheet, they became very low, and remained high in low latitudes. Because of this, a strong wind was formed, which "ploughed out" almost all the upper deposits. A huge amount of dust saturated the atmosphere.

"When you fly over Western Siberia, you see this very eolian relief of the last glaciation - the basin of Lake Chany and many other smaller lakes. There was a territory from which dust was blown out - in Siberia it is the Baraba lowland, Kulunda. it flew to Greenland, Antarctica, and in Siberia in the wind shadow, for example, near Altai, it fell out in the form of precipitation.The coarser material was carried by the wind along the surface of the Earth, settled, forming positive forms of aeolian relief in the form of crests and ridges, similar to dunes and dunes modern deserts. The vast expanses of Western Siberia turned into a huge cold desert. Due to the western transfer of air masses, due to the rotation of the Earth, eolian forms acquired a distinct southwestern orientation. In warm interglacial epochs, when the climate was moistened, soils were formed (as is happening now )", - explains the leading researcher, Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences Valentina Semyonovna Zykina.

Thus, over the past 800 thousand years, more than 150 meters of sediments have accumulated on the Pre-Altai Plain, consisting of alternating horizons of loess and soils. Their sequence most fully reflects the climatic changes that took place in the Quaternary period. In addition to Western Siberia, this sequence is found in many parts of the world - China, Central Asia, Europe, and the USA. It is very difficult to study it. So in the coastal cliffs of the Ob, Irtysh and many other rivers, its sections have almost vertical walls. On the Priobsky plateau, their height reaches 120 meters. In order to obtain detailed records of climate change and determine the duration of each glacial and interglacial epoch, scientists are clearing and examining in detail almost every centimeter of these sections. After that, the laboratory studies the microstructure of loess and soil horizons, the mineral grains that compose them, and the chemical features of sedimentation.

Having thus studied the loess-soil sequences of Western and Central Siberia, Valentina Zykina and her colleagues established that this record of climatic events is one of the most complete in the world, and the structure of soil complexes clearly coincides with the structure of warm stages in many global climate records (bottom sediments of the World ocean, Baikal climate record, ice cores of Antarctica). That is, the soils in many regions of the Earth were formed synchronously. The cyclicity of their formation coincided with the periodicity of changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth, which, according to calculations, about 400 thousand years ago were similar to modern ones.

"The fossil soil corresponding to this time and formed in the same geomorphological conditions has a thickness three times greater than the modern one, which indicates that the duration of this epoch of soil formation, occurring in the warm conditions of the interglacial, was also three times longer. Therefore, to say that in the near future In time, the modern interglacial era will end and a major glaciation will come, there are no grounds. It will continue for more than 30 thousand years," says Valentina Zykina.

However, not all so simple. Glacial and interglacial epochs have a certain structure - within each of them smaller periods of warming and cooling alternate, many cycles of different duration and amplitude have been identified. These events are quasi-periodic, so it is rather difficult to predict them, and besides, they can manifest themselves locally.

Most reliably they are restored over the last millennia. First, according to historical data. These are the warmest Romanesque and Medieval climatic optimums and the coldest Dark Ages and the Little Ice Age. The latter began, according to some sources, from the 12th century, and according to others, from the 15th century. Then there was a cooling of the climate, in the mountains there was an advance of glaciers, in Europe the temperature dropped by one to three degrees, which caused outbreaks of crop failure and famine, as well as epidemics of plague and cholera. When large volcanic eruptions occurred, and the products of these eruptions entered the stratosphere, creating a screen for the sun's rays, the cooling intensified even more. These events led, in fact, to a climate catastrophe. So, due to the eruption of the Huaynaputina volcano in 1601-1604, it became much colder in Moscow, snow fell in July, the Moscow River froze, crop failure and famine reigned. The eruption of the Laki volcano in Iceland in 1783-1784 reduced the activity of the monsoons over Africa, which led to the absence of the Nile flood and caused the famous "great dry land" in Egypt, during which millions of people died of starvation. The population in this country has decreased by six times. The Little Ice Age ended at the end of the 19th century, and from that time a warming began, which continues to this day.

The second source of information is subaerial precipitation. Having studied them on the territory of the West Siberian Plain over the past 1000 years, scientists have established that in the interval from the 1200s to approximately 1860s, corresponding to the Little Ice Age, forms of aeolian relief were actively formed - sand massifs and dunes.

“During the aridization of the climate, the level of rivers and lakes fell, and a huge amount of sandy material deposited on the eastern shores was carried out of them by the western wind. At the end of the 19th century, soil began to form on this eolian relief, vegetation appeared - the so-called ribbon forests,” says Vladimir Zykin - In terms of scale, these events turned out to be much smaller than during the accumulation of loess.We found that over the past 1200 years there have been short quasi-periodic fluctuations in the average annual air temperature and climate humidification lasting 200-300 years, manifested in the alternation of horizons of aeolian sands and soils. During short phases of cooling and aridization of the climate, eolian formations formed. During short periods of warming and moisture (for example, from about 1350 to 1560), sands were fixed by vegetation and soils were formed. According to scientists, now in Western Siberia there is a phase of climate humidification.

Today, global warming continues. According to the World Meteorological Organization, 2016 is recognized as the warmest year in the history of meteorological observations, 2017 is in third place, and in Russia, according to the Hydrometeorological Center, it became the warmest in its entire history. The polar ice is shrinking. The increase in temperature correlates well with an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Last year it was fixed at about 400 ppm, although in 1958, when such measurements were first started, it was only 315 ppm, and its estimated pre-industrial level is taken at 280 ppm.

If it were not for greenhouse gases (the main one being water vapor), the temperature on Earth would be 30 °C lower. That is, on average, it would be -15 ° C.

"It is customary to associate the processes of modern global warming with the growth of carbon dioxide. But, as is known from ice cores from Antarctica, significant changes in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere occurred in the interglacial-glacial cycle - from 180 ppm during glaciations to 290 ppm during warmer periods, when the climate was not affected by any anthropogenic influence, and global records show that the increase in temperature is 800 years ahead of the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations.

The increase in CO2 is apparently associated with an increase in the temperature of the water in the Ocean, which leads to the release of carbon dioxide from the water and methane from the bottom sediments. That is, like the rise in temperature, it most likely depends on natural causes, which we are still poorly aware of, Vladimir Zykin notes. - Recently, UN Secretary General A. Guterres called global warming the main threat to all mankind. Despite the real danger of global climate change occurring at a high speed, their study is carried out rather sluggishly. Neither the causes nor the consequences are clear. The officially accepted point of view on the causes of warming, as a response only to an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to the combustion of carbon fuel, greatly simplifies the approach to understanding the ongoing global changes and does not explain many natural processes that are currently taking place. Recently, the number of specialists in Russia involved in the evolution of natural processes has drastically decreased. There is no national program coordinating the efforts of scientists. The attitude of mankind to the problems of climate change is well reflected in the painting by Pieter Brueghel the Elder "The Blind", in which six blind people walk along a cliff.

Diana Khomyakova

Sources

BezFormat.Ru Novosibirsk (novosibirsk.bezformata.ru), 15/05/2018
Siberian News Agency (sibnovosti.ru), 05/15/2018
Monavista (novosibirsk.monavista.ru), 05/15/2018
The world news (theworldnews.net), 05/17/2018
Science and technology (naucaitechnika.ru), 05/17/2018
Scientific Russia (scientificrussia.ru), 05/21/2018
 
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